How Amazon's HQ2 will -- and won't -- have an impact on the Northern VA housing market

Earlier this week, I attended a forum on Amazon and the Northern Virginia Housing Market, which was hosted by the Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship, part of the George Mason University School of Business.

There's been a lot of hype in Northern Virginia since Amazon announced they are opening a headquarters (HQ2) in Crystal City, a neighborhood in Arlington that is being renamed "National Landing" as part of Amazon's arrival. Clients have been telling me they are hearing that there will be a big housing boom and that real estate values will increase dramatically in the near future.

The truth is that while Amazon coming to NoVa is a good thing, and that it will bring growth to the area, that growth isn't going to be as dramatic as some people expect. The rollout of HQ2 will happen over 16 years, and in 2019 is expected to bring only about 400 new jobs to the area. To put that in perspective, the metro area creates about 43,000 new jobs each year; Amazon will account for less than 1% of that growth in 2019. From 2020-2035, HQ2 will create an average of 2,400 jobs each year, resulting in a forecast 1-5% growth in the demand for housing over that time.

Housing inventory in Northern Virginia remains low, and interest rates are rising. Those are the two biggest drivers for the current sellers' market we're seeing in the area.

But don't just take my word for it. Click this link to read an analysis by Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist, on the impact of HQ2.

For Your Protection, Get A Home Inspection

A friend who's buying a home out of state sent me a text message last week asking if getting a home inspection was, in her words, "a total racket."

I asked what was going on and she explained that her agent had recommended a home inspector, and that she didn't think it was worth doing the inspection because since the agent had recommended the inspector, the inspector had "skin in the game/incentive to make sure [the deal] goes through."

I explained to her that I always tell my buyer clients to get a home inspection, and that the inspectors I recommend are professionals I trust to protect my clients' interests. Sometimes they find nothing serious, other times they find something that sours the deal. Often, they find things that either need to be repaired before the transaction (such as faulty equipment), or that the new owners need to be aware of for the future (such as a water heater nearing the end of its useful lifespan).

Regardless of whether the deal goes through, the home inspector usually gets paid at the time the inspection is done, so there is no incentive for them to make sure the deal goes through.

The bedrock of my business is referrals from clients, so if I recommend a home inspector who doesn't do a good job, that reflects badly on me and is something my client is likely to tell others when they ask for recommendations for a REALTOR.

My duty as your agent is to protect you and your interests, not the transaction.

In your corner,
-Rob

What Will You Do When You Win Mega Millions?

I was on the phone with my friend who is a financial advisor today and the conversation inevitably turned to the Mega Millions Lottery, which is up to a $1.6 billion jackpot (just in case you've been living under a rock for the past week). He confessed that he hadn't bought a ticket yet, and I confessed that I'd bought a few. In fact, last week, while I did not win the $900 million jackpot, I did walk away with $2 — and I promptly reinvested it in another ticket.

Since I was talking to a money guy, I asked him how I should take the money when (not if) I win the jackpot tonight.

As it turns out, taking a one-time cash payout is the best way to go. Yes, you walk away with less than 50% of the full jackpot after taxes, but if you invest most of the money and get a return of more than about 1.5%, you will ultimately do better than if you take the annuity option. With some sound financial advice, you can parlay that paltry $750 million into billions.

And when you do I'll be there to help you find a sweet place to live while you watch your fortune grow.

Incidentally, my friend told me he'd give me $1 million if he wins tonight — and I'm holding him to that. 

Updating a home you're planning to sell - what pays off?

I recently met with a homeowner who is planning to sell her late 1950s home within the next year. She wanted some advice about what improvements she could make to increase the resale value of her home.

This is a subject that comes up frequently with seller clients, and my advice is almost always the same: invest in things you will be able to enjoy while you're living here, and/or invest in home maintenance items you have been putting off doing.

A few years ago I had a client who had invested significant money in the interior of their home, but the HVAC was very outdated and the home had windows dating back to the 1970s. Potential buyers who came to open houses commented on the bright colors and modern look of the kitchen, but ran away when they noted that the HVAC was not keeping the home cool on a hot day, party because the air was escaping through the old windows.

Eventually the home sold — after my client invested in new windows and updated the HVAC system — and my client made that money back on the home because it sold above the asking price.

Replacing outdated HVAC, old windows, and/or an old roof are investments that will reap rewards when it's time to sell.

For this client, I suggested new windows and updating the HVAC, and she was planning a master bath remodel that she will get to enjoy until she's ready to sell the home.

For more information on renovation ideas that pay, visit: https://www.hgtv.com/design/decorating/clean-and-organize/which-home-improvements-pay-off

As always, if you have questions I'm here to help! I also work with a number of contractors who can help make your home renovation needs, so don't hesitate to call or email!

In your corner,
-Rob

Preparing for Hurricane Florence in Fairfax County

The Commonwealth of Virginia has posted some great infographic on preparing for hurricanes. These and other useful tips can be found at http://www.vaemergency.gov/.

Hurricanes and Other Natural Disasters: Are You Prepared?

Hurricane Florence is bearing down on the Central Atlantic region and my social media filled with posts from people wondering how to prepare.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website features a page with recommendations for preparing for hurricanes. These recommendations can also be applied to other types of extreme weather events and disasters.

Here are some steps you can take to be prepared for hurricanes and other types of disasters:

Know where to go
Sheltering in place is often a good recommendation, but what if you or a family member is injured and needs medical help, or what if your home is rendered unsafe during a disaster? Where are the nearest hospitals, and where can you go if you need emergency shelter? Write down addresses and phone numbers in a safe place — you may not have access to the internet (even from your phone) in the event of an emergency.


Be prepared for power and water outages
If the power goes out, how will you feed yourself? What if the water isn't running, or has been contaminated? NOAA recommends that you keep an emergency rations kit with foods that don't require any preparation or refrigeration, and that you keep these emergency rations in a water-tight container. Make sure everyone in your household knows where this container is located. If the food is canned, make sure you include a can opener and utensils in your kit. You can also store first aid supplies in this container. Keep enough food and fresh water on hand to last 2-3 days.

A generator and/or a camp stove can be extremely helpful in a crisis. Make sure you buy it well ahead of an emergency to avoid low supplies right before a forecasted weather event, and never operate a generator or portable gas stove indoors as these devise produce carbon monoxide (CO), a colorless, odorless, tasteless gas that can cause sudden illness and death (See my blog from last year on CO). It is produced any time a fossil fuel is burned and is, according to the CDC, the leading cause of accidental poisoning deaths in the U.S. CO results in more than 430 deaths and 50,000 emergency room visits each year in the U.S. alone (See the CDC FAQs about CO.)

Have a plan for everyone in your household
Sometimes disasters strike suddenly. Have a plan for you and everyone in your household in the event that you're not together when something happens. Plan where to meet up if communications are down, and how to communicate if power is out (charged, hand-held walkie talkies with a range of more than a mile can be useful in this situation).

For more information visit the NOAA website.

As always, if I can be of service in any way, just let me know.

-Rob

Rob Traister

REALTOR®

RE/MAX 100

Licensed in VA

(703) 935-6891

1471 Davis Mil Rd., Lancaster, VA 22503

Property Site: http://tour.circlepix.com/home/SWCRD7/1471-DAVIS-MILL-ROAD-LANCASTER-VA-1000069885

Exceptional investment in historic Northern Neck. 15 minutes from crabbing & fishing. Was operated as an assisted living facility until 2001, now serves as a retreat. 16 bedrooms, 8 full baths, in-ground pool, tennis court, dock, detached single family residence with detached garage and workshop, and Chapel on site. Great opportunity. Adjoining properties also for sale -- up to 190 acres!

Bedrooms: 16

Bathrooms: 8

Price: $1,200,000

For more information about this property, please contact Robert Traister at 703-642-3380 ext. 4721 or rob.traister@gmail.com. You can also text 4182709 to 67299.

See more listings at: www.traister.com

MLS ID: 1000069885

https://www.facebook.com/RobTraisterRemax100/ https://twitter.com/robtraister http://https:://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJYV3Vzpb57DXoL7ONZawaw