How Amazon's HQ2 will -- and won't -- have an impact on the Northern VA housing market

Earlier this week, I attended a forum on Amazon and the Northern Virginia Housing Market, which was hosted by the Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship, part of the George Mason University School of Business.

There's been a lot of hype in Northern Virginia since Amazon announced they are opening a headquarters (HQ2) in Crystal City, a neighborhood in Arlington that is being renamed "National Landing" as part of Amazon's arrival. Clients have been telling me they are hearing that there will be a big housing boom and that real estate values will increase dramatically in the near future.

The truth is that while Amazon coming to NoVa is a good thing, and that it will bring growth to the area, that growth isn't going to be as dramatic as some people expect. The rollout of HQ2 will happen over 16 years, and in 2019 is expected to bring only about 400 new jobs to the area. To put that in perspective, the metro area creates about 43,000 new jobs each year; Amazon will account for less than 1% of that growth in 2019. From 2020-2035, HQ2 will create an average of 2,400 jobs each year, resulting in a forecast 1-5% growth in the demand for housing over that time.

Housing inventory in Northern Virginia remains low, and interest rates are rising. Those are the two biggest drivers for the current sellers' market we're seeing in the area.

But don't just take my word for it. Click this link to read an analysis by Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist, on the impact of HQ2.